Stu Does America Ep 1199 | How to Find Value in Your 2026 Midterm and Primary Predictions | Guest: Daniel Horowitz
Mar 12, 2026
Daniel Horowitz, conservative journalist and senior editor at TheBlaze, critiques sweeping federal housing legislation and its local consequences. He argues the bill expands federal leverage, rezoning incentives, and subsidies in ways that could reshape neighborhoods. Conversation also covers data centers eating farmland, market distortions from policy and rates, and strategic thinking about midterm and primary prediction value.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Finding Value In Prediction Markets
- Prediction markets reveal value when public odds diverge from your estimated probabilities.
- Stu used 2016 and recent Texas primary examples where low-market Trump/Cornyn prices created profitable opportunities by buying undervalued positions.
Trade Market Value Not Certainty
- Look for market value instead of pure win probability when trading election markets.
- Stu bought Cornyn when polls implied Paxton had unrealistically high odds and sold when prices moved into profitable ranges.
Sell When Market Hits Your Price
- Sell positions when market prices reach your fair-value estimate rather than riding to 100%.
- Stu described selling Cornyn in the high 80s after buying much lower to realize gains without needing full certainty.