Claude Code for Finance + The Global Memory Shortage: Doug O'Laughlin, SemiAnalysis

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Feb 24, 2026

Doug O'Laughlin, founder of SemiAnalysis and semiconductor analyst known for deep memory, GPU, and supply-chain research. He talks about Claude Code powering analyst workflows and agent swarms for automation. He explores the memory supply crunch, HBM vs DRAM pressures, and how AI tooling reshapes information work and institutional memory.

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LLMs Compressed Multi‑Year Research Into Days

Doug used LLMs to compress a lifetime of memory-cycle research into days, assembling historical NAND/DRAM data, covariates and narratives rapidly.
This allowed fast creation of dashboards and regime summaries that previously required months of human work.

Always Keep Expert Review For Final Judgment

Do keep humans in the loop for meta-level judgment; Doug stresses expert review on LLM output and that the model still makes frequent mistakes.
Train reviewers to spot 'slop' and provide the final 5% of artisanal judgment that matters.

Benchmarks Suggest LLMs Reach White Collar Parity

GDPVal-style benchmarks show LLMs already reach parity with many white‑collar experts, implying broad automation potential across information work.
Doug treats this as an AGI definition for automation of common jobs, distinct from ASI claims.

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First speakers for AIE Europe and AIEi Miami have been announced. If you’re in Asia/Aus, come by Singapore and Melbourne. AI Engineering is going global!

One year ago today, Anthropic launched Claude Code, to not much fanfare:

The word of mouth was incredibly strong however, and so we were glad to be one of the first podcasts to invite Boris and Cat on in early May:

As we discussed on the pod, all CC usage was API-based and therefore it was ridiculously expensive to do anything. This was then fixed by the team including Claude Code in the Claude Pro plan in early June, and then the virality caused us to make a rare trend call in late June:

Now, 6 months on, Doug has just calculated that around 4% of GitHub is written by Claude Code:

We talk about how Doug uses Claude Code to do SemiAnalysis work.

Memory Mania

In the second part of this episode, we also check in on Memory Mania, which is going to affect you (yes, you) at home if it hasn’t already:

Full Episode on YouTube

Timestamps

00:00 AI as Junior Analyst00:59 Meet Swyx and Doug03:30 From Value Mule to Semis06:28 Moore’s Law Ends Thesis12:02 Claude Code Awakening32:02 Agent Swarms Reality Check32:53 Kimi Swarm Benchmarks37:31 Bots vs Zapier Automation39:44 Claude Code Workflow Setup57:54 AGI Metrics and GDP01:04:48 Railroad CapEx Analogy01:06:00 Funding Bubbles and Demand01:08:11 Agents Replace Work Tools01:13:56 Codex vs Claude Race01:21:15 Microsoft and TPU Strategy01:34:13 TPU Window vs Nvidia01:36:30 HBM Supply Chain Squeeze01:39:41 Memory Shock and CXL01:45:20 Context Rationing Future01:54:37 Writing and Trail Lessons

Transcript

[00:00:00] AI as Junior Analyst

[00:00:00] Doug: This crap makes mistakes all the time. All the time. It is still just like a, like I think of it once again as like a junior analyst, right? The analyst goes and does all this like really pain in the ass information and you bring it all together to make a good decision at the top. Historically what happens is that junior analyst, who I once was, went and gathered all that information, and after doing this enough times, there’s a meta level thinking that’s happening where it’s like, okay, here’s what I really understand and how this type of analysis, I’m an expert in, actually I’m very good at, I consistently have a hit rate.

[00:00:28] Now I’m the expert, right? I don’t think that meta level learning is there yet. We’ll see if l ones do it, right? Everyone who’s spending one quadrillion dollars in the world thinks it will, it better, it better happen by if you’re spending, you know, a trillion dollars and there’s not meta level learning.

[00:00:44] But for me, in our firm, that massively amplifies everyone who is an expert. ‘cause like you have to still do something that you can just like lop it up. It’s very obvious to me. What It’s slop.

[00:00:59] Meet Swyx and Doug