S4 E17. Can Anyone Predict Future Oil Supply?

For more than 40 years, Michael Rothman has made a career out of data-driven analysis of the global oil market. He has attended every meeting of OPEC since 1986. His clients are a roster of major industry players and governments. State of Tel Aviv and Beyond spoke with Rothman almost one week ago….just as the tensions over the Iranian chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz flared into a full-blown global crisis. Overnight, it seemed, everyone knew about the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island - the Iranian island about 400 miles (660 km) north of the shipping choke point controlled by Iran in the Persian Gulf. Virtually all critical infrastructure supporting the Iranian oil and gas industries are based on Kharg Island, making it a potential target for a U.S. military operation. Occupying Kharg - would be a highly complex adventure (which was discussed in our recent podcast with military analyst, Andrew Fox). Rothman, however, dismisses any talk of occupying Kharg as “fantasy.”

Michael Rothman takes us through a series of slides and explains the fundamentals of the global oil market and why it is almost impossible to predict how high energy prices may go, when and for how long.

This podcast is different from our usual work and will be of interest to those of you who have a business background, and a thing for numbers, graphs, economics, and uncertainty.

Please note that all slides presented in this podcast are the proprietary work of Cornerstone Analytics and are reproduced in this podcast with permission from Cornerstone. These slides may not be reproduced and/or distributed without the permission of Cornerstone Analytics.

Mike Rothman has researched the global energy markets for more than 40 years. He founded Cornerstone Analytics in 2009, serves as a consultant to government agencies, and has attended Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meetings since 1986.

In 1984, Mike joined Merrill Lynch and became Chief Energy Strategist and Co-Head of the Global Energy Equity Team, which was ranked #1 in the Global Research Survey by Institutional Investor Magazine. Mike was responsible for formulating the company’s outlooks for the petroleum and natural gas markets, which were integrated into the firm’s commodity, equity, debt, strategy, economic and emerging markets research.

In 2005, Mike joined ISI and built the firm’s energy research platform. He was a Senior Managing Director, Head of Integrated Oil Research, and ranked #1 for Independent Energy Research by Institutional Investor Magazine.

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Agricultural and Business Economics, and a Master of Science in Applied Economics/Econometrics, both from Rutgers University.

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