Macro Voices MacroVoices #507 Michael Howell: Is This The end of the Everything Bubble
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Nov 20, 2025 
Michael Howell, CEO of Global Liquidity Indices and macro researcher, delves into the global liquidity cycle's intricate dynamics. He discusses the significance of its 65-month periodicity and where we currently stand. The conversation highlights the implications of recent market sell-offs and the shifting landscape of asset allocation. Howell also addresses the debt-liquidity paradox, how refinancing needs impact market stability, and the potential outcomes of government stimulus in restoring liquidity. His insights paint a thoughtful picture of future trends in commodities and markets.
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Rotate Assets By Cycle Phase
- Adjust allocations by cycle: favor equities earlier, shift to commodities near peak, and to cash/bonds during downturns.
- Use sector timing: tech leads early, financials mid-cycle, commodities late-cycle.
TGA Rebuild Drained Market Liquidity
- Fed liquidity fell due to rebuilding the Treasury General Account and the government shutdown.
- That drained over $500 billion from markets and pushed bank reserves below critical levels.
Repo Stress Signals Broken Rate Transmission
- Repo spreads widening show money-market stress as Fed control over rates weakens.
- SOFR trading above Fed funds signals the Fed may lose effective interest-rate transmission.
