The Nonlinear Library LW - Most experts believe COVID-19 was probably not a lab leak by DanielFilan
Feb 2, 2024
02:07
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Most experts believe COVID-19 was probably not a lab leak, published by DanielFilan on February 2, 2024 on LessWrong.
The Global Catastrophic Risks Institute conducted an anonymous survey of relevant experts on whether they thought COVID was more likely caused by a lab accident (aka lab leak) or zoonotic spillover. Their summary, bolding is mine:
The study's experts overall stated that the COVID-19 pandemic most likely originated via a natural zoonotic event, defined as an event in which a non-human animal infected a human, and in which the infection did not occur in the course of any form of virological or biomedical research.
The experts generally gave a lower probability for origin via a research-related accident, but most experts indicated some chance of origin via accident and about one fifth of the experts stated that an accident was the more likely origin. These beliefs were similar across experts from different geographic and academic backgrounds.
The experts mostly expressed the view that more research on COVID-19's origin could be of value. About half of the experts stated that major gaps still remain in the understanding COVID-19's origin, and most of the other experts also stated that some research is still needed. About 40% of experts stated that clarity on COVID-19 origins would provide a better understanding of the potential origins of future pandemics. Given clarity on COVID-19's origin, experts also proposed a variety of governance changes for addressing future pandemics, including measures to prevent initial human infection, measures to prevent initial infection from becoming pandemic, and measures to mitigate the harm once the pandemic occurs.
The vast majority of the experts express the belief that a natural zoonotic event will likely be the origin of the next pandemic.
The experts also provided a set of clear recommendations for preventing, preparing for and responding to future pandemics, which generally align with many previous studies.
Link to the main report is here, and link to their (much longer) methodological and analytical annex is here.
Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org
The Global Catastrophic Risks Institute conducted an anonymous survey of relevant experts on whether they thought COVID was more likely caused by a lab accident (aka lab leak) or zoonotic spillover. Their summary, bolding is mine:
The study's experts overall stated that the COVID-19 pandemic most likely originated via a natural zoonotic event, defined as an event in which a non-human animal infected a human, and in which the infection did not occur in the course of any form of virological or biomedical research.
The experts generally gave a lower probability for origin via a research-related accident, but most experts indicated some chance of origin via accident and about one fifth of the experts stated that an accident was the more likely origin. These beliefs were similar across experts from different geographic and academic backgrounds.
The experts mostly expressed the view that more research on COVID-19's origin could be of value. About half of the experts stated that major gaps still remain in the understanding COVID-19's origin, and most of the other experts also stated that some research is still needed. About 40% of experts stated that clarity on COVID-19 origins would provide a better understanding of the potential origins of future pandemics. Given clarity on COVID-19's origin, experts also proposed a variety of governance changes for addressing future pandemics, including measures to prevent initial human infection, measures to prevent initial infection from becoming pandemic, and measures to mitigate the harm once the pandemic occurs.
The vast majority of the experts express the belief that a natural zoonotic event will likely be the origin of the next pandemic.
The experts also provided a set of clear recommendations for preventing, preparing for and responding to future pandemics, which generally align with many previous studies.
Link to the main report is here, and link to their (much longer) methodological and analytical annex is here.
Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org