Making Sense What lies ahead for Iran and the wider region?
Mar 6, 2026
Derek Chollet, head of the JPMorgan Chase Center for Geopolitics and foreign policy expert, outlines the U.S.–Israel military operation against Iran and its strategic timeline. He discusses campaign scope, air-and-naval tactics versus ground invasion, the impact of Iran’s leadership crisis, and short- to medium-term disruptions and regional economic opportunities.
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Unprecedented Joint U.S.-Israel Operation
- The U.S.-Israel campaign is unprecedented in scale and truly joint, combining shared intelligence, operational plans, and division of labor.
- Derek Chollet compares its regional impact to Iran's 1979 shift and the Soviet Union's collapse in downstream geopolitical effects.
Monitor Munitions Markets And Midterms
- Watch the three M's: munitions, markets, and midterms to gauge campaign duration and U.S. willingness to continue.
- Expect the operation to last days to weeks as munitions deplete, markets react, and political support (midterms) shifts.
Air Campaign Limits On Regime Change
- This is an air and naval operation with no large-scale troop invasion, so its ability to produce regime change on its own is limited.
- Chollet warns air power can't remove a regime's 'guns' on the ground, risking violent repression if civilians rise up.