Daniel Davis Deep Dive Strait of Hormuz Showdown /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Dan Depetris
Apr 9, 2026
Dan DePetris, a foreign policy analyst and senior fellow focused on U.S. strategy and the Middle East, breaks down the Strait of Hormuz crisis. He debates whether the strait is truly open, Iran's selective control, and confusion over ceasefire terms. He weighs risks of escalation, political theater around military options, and how carrots and sticks might actually pressure Tehran.
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Strait Of Hormuz Remains Effectively Closed
- The Strait of Hormuz was not functioning as open despite ceasefire claims.
- Dan DePetris counted ~10–12 ships in 24 hours versus a normal 100–120 daily, showing Iran was selectively allowing passage.
Competing Ceasefire Frameworks Undermine Talks
- The ceasefire's terms are ambiguous and contested, undermining negotiation prospects.
- Iran and the U.S. released competing 10- and 15-point frameworks and disagreed publicly on whether Lebanon was included.
U.S. Targets Would Have Been Limited Not Apocalyptic
- The Pentagon had a calibrated target set ready, not full-scale annihilation.
- DePetris says options included strikes on energy facilities, bridges, roads, and highways rather than 'destroying an entire civilization.'