Mr. M Podcast | Maurizio Pedrazzoli Grazioli Why Bitcoin is Pumping Now (Not What You Think)
Mar 4, 2026
A fast-paced dive into why Bitcoin is rallying now, covering ETF inflows, market microstructure, and alleged manipulative trading. They debate short-term technical patterns like double bottoms and range-bound behavior. Conversation touches on community-driven data work, sentiment indicators, PMI as a macro tailwind, and practical dollar-cost averaging strategies.
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Range Bound With A Real Chance Of Low 50ks
- Bitcoin has been range-bound around $65–70k and may either form a double bottom or drop further toward the low $50ks based on historical drawdowns and production-cost floors.
- PlanC and Maurizio use quantile models and drawdown/run-up ratios to estimate a feasible low‑50s scenario, but acknowledge error bars and a 50/50 chance this plays out.
Use DCA Instead Of Waiting For A Perfect Dip
- Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is recommended instead of waiting for a specific price level like $50k.
- Smitty and PlanC stress DCA avoids missing buys if the hoped-for dip never appears and captures lower prices if it does.
ETF Inflows May Be Masked By Trading Desk Activity
- ETF inflows are positive but their net effect is unclear because trading desks like Jane Street may be using ETF shares in complex ways that could suppress price.
- Maurizio points to articles and prior behaviors as evidence there's 'a lot of smoke' around potential selling and options strategies tied to ETFs.