Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Stocks Likely To Trend Higher Into Year End? | Michael Lebowitz
Oct 25, 2025
Michael Lebowitz, a portfolio manager at RIA, shares his insights on market trends as we approach year-end. He predicts that stocks will likely drift higher, provided no surprises shake the market. They dive into inflation dynamics, the housing market's dual pressures, and the implications of recent CPI data. Michael also critiques current mortgage forecasts and discusses energy investments. Additionally, he explores the gambling scandal's impact on speculation, illustrating the connection between market behavior and societal risks.
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Labor Adds Well Below Trend
- Private payroll indicators (like ADP) suggest job additions have slowed to roughly 25k–50k per month, below what's needed for trend growth.
- Limited labor gains imply weaker consumption — a risk to GDP if the trend continues.
Hope Trades Outperform Predictable Earnings
- The market shows speculative preference: loss-making, hopeful small caps and narrative plays (crypto/AI) outperform steady earners.
- Michael warns that 'hope' trades often trade ahead of fundamentals and can reverse sharply when sentiment shifts.
Be Patient And Diversified Amid Froth
- Diversify across themes and be patient with value areas like fossil fuels and pipelines that pay dividends while you wait.
- Take profits on overheated positions and maintain risk limits to manage froth-driven volatility.