Bloomberg Surveillance US Market and Economic Outlook in 2025
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Dec 31, 2024 Mark Weatherford, VP of Policy and Standards at Gretel, shares his insights on AI regulation and cybersecurity. He emphasizes the importance of ethical guidelines as AI transforms industries. Weatherford discusses the incoming administration's challenges and proposes key recommendations for enhancing cybersecurity. The conversation also touches on the fragile labor market and the necessity for legislative frameworks to responsibly manage AI's growth. These discussions frame the broader economic landscape as we head into 2025.
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Volatility Outlook
- The VIX isn't signaling excessive complacency nor an imminent volatility spike.
- Watch the MOVE index (Treasury volatility) for early signs of market anxiety related to fiscal policy and Fed response.
Fed's Real Rate View
- The Fed raised their real rate forecast without changing GDP or employment projections.
- This suggests the economy can handle higher real rates due to structural forces supporting growth and inflation.
Labor Market and Fed
- Veronica Clark believes markets underestimate labor market weakness.
- She predicts a more dovish Fed than expected in 2025 due to this.