Gulf Intelligence Podcasts PODCAST: Daily Energy Markets - March 2nd
Mar 2, 2026
Russell Robertson, ABEX Exchange exec focused on Asian demand and LNG; Adi Imsirovic, clean energy director and Oxford lecturer on reserves and supply buffers; Omar Najia, BB Energy derivatives trader versed in Middle East risk. They debate the conflict’s market shock, supply-route vulnerabilities, strategic reserve options, shifting Asian demand and likely heightened volatility and price spikes.
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Iran's Campaign Is Designed To Prolong Disruption
- Iran is pursuing a sustained asymmetric campaign, not a short shock, aiming to disrupt provisioning and logistics across the Gulf.
- Omar Najia describes strikes on bases, radars, and supply lines forcing longer re-supply routes like Diego Garcia and slowing Western naval operations.
Curve Shows Markets Bet On A Quick Resolution
- The market is unusually optimistic about a quick resolution, pricing next-year barrels well below current front-month levels.
- Adi Imsirovic notes December/January futures trade under $70 while front-months spike, implying the curve assumes the crisis ends quickly.
Big Backwardation Signals Severe Near Term Tightness
- Backwardation magnitude matters more than cheap forwards; a large front/back spread signals stronger immediate tightness.
- Omar Najia explains traders read big front-month premiums as a more bullish market even if distant months look cheap.