The Market Just Broke Below A Critical Support Level | Lance Roberts

34 snips

Mar 21, 2026

Lance Roberts, portfolio manager and market commentator known for macro and technical analysis. He explains the S&P breaking below its 200-day moving average and what technical signals to watch next. They discuss spiking oil, its consumer and global demand effects, concerns around private credit and tactical portfolio moves like trimming into rallies.

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INSIGHT

Futures And Speculators Drive Short-Term Oil Volatility

Oil futures reflect speculator-driven volatility and expect prices to fall by year-end, making current spikes possibly short-lived.
Lance highlights futures pricing WTI back near $60 by year-end and COT speculative positioning driving intraday swings.

INSIGHT

High Oil Prices Trigger Supply Responses Over Time

High oil prices are a self-correcting mechanism: they incentivize supply changes and demand shifts, which can eventually lower prices.
Countries may build alternate pipelines and diversify sourcing, reducing long-term Gulf price premia.

INSIGHT

Geopolitics Could Lift Long-Term Price Premiums For Safe Suppliers

Geopolitical risk may permanently raise a Gulf premium, benefiting U.S. and other secure exporters as buyers prioritize reliability over price.
Adam suggests countries will pay more for safer suppliers and the U.S. is securing deals with Indo-Pacific clients post-war news.

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PURCHASE THE REPLAY OF THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S SPRING ONLINE CONFERENCE at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceThe S&P just broke below its 200 Daily Moving Average, which is a critical support level.This substantially increases the odds that stocks could really start to drop materially from here.Lance and I discuss which indicators he's be monitoring most closely over the next few weeks to determine whether a true break down is indeed starting now or not. We also discuss the impact of spiking oil prices, the concerns of private credit and his firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.#oilprice #iranwar #privatecredit _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.