Bloomberg Talks Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller Talks War-Related Inflation, Private Credit
Mar 6, 2026
Chris Waller, Federal Reserve Governor known for his monetary policy and inflation work, discusses war-driven fuel shocks and why a one-off spike may not mean sustained inflation. He contrasts today’s risks with 1970s oil crises. He addresses tariffs, fragile labor markets, how jobs data would affect rate plans, and why private credit issues look isolated rather than systemic.
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Oil Price Spike Likely One Off Not Lasting Inflation
- A Middle East shock will raise gasoline prices quickly but is unlikely to cause sustained inflation.
- Chris Waller argues core inflation, which excludes volatile energy, better predicts future inflation and should guide Fed policy.
1970s Oil Shocks Were Repeated Not Single Events
- The 1970s inflation differed because oil shocks repeated and never fully reversed, unlike the current event.
- Waller says the present shock looks more like a single event rather than a series of persistent embargoes.
Headline Jobs Can Mask Weak Broader Hiring
- Waller is worried about weak, narrow labor-market breadth despite headline job gains concentrated in a few sectors.
- He notes 80% of the economy showed zero to negative hiring, making the labor market fragile to shocks.