This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Russia-Ukraine deal – Can anyone force Putin to change course?
Dec 4, 2025
Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and arms control expert, discusses the complex dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He analyzes the limited territorial changes and heavy costs for Russia while highlighting Ukraine's defensive advantages and public sentiment for peace. Pifer critiques the Trump administration's peace push and contrasts negotiation styles. He emphasizes Europe’s crucial role in ensuring a sustainable settlement and explores potential leverage points to encourage Putin to engage in meaningful negotiations.
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Strikes Undermine Russian Narrative
- Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian refineries are degrading Russia's economy and undermining Putin's domestic narrative.
- As Russian citizens feel economic pain, political tolerance for the war may erode over time.
Ukrainian Negotiation Limits
- Ukrainians want negotiations but will not accept outcomes amounting to capitulation or unsafe long-term security.
- They fear conceding territory now could invite a rebuilt Russian assault later.
Leaked Plan Reveals Weak U.S. Grip
- The leaked 28-point plan favored Russian positions and showed U.S. envoys lacked detailed engagement on terms.
- Russia did not formally own the plan, revealing disconnection between U.S. messaging and Moscow's stance.
