Ken McElroy Show

The Fed’s Next Move Could Flip the Economy

Feb 14, 2026
Mortgage rates hovering near 6% and whether they’ll fall or spike with inflation. How unemployment, consumer spending, and savings shape rate risks. Political pressure on the Fed and its impact on future moves. The bond market and Fannie/Freddie mortgage-backed security buying effects. Strategies around refinancing and when lower rates could unleash buyers.
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INSIGHT

Rates At A Three-Year Low

  • Mortgage rates are near six percent and have trended down to a three-year low.
  • That gradual decline feels more normal compared with past rapid moves up and down.
INSIGHT

Inflation Can Stop Rate Drops

  • Rising inflation would likely stall or reverse recent rate declines and could keep mortgage rates high.
  • The Fed raised rates sharply in 2022 to fight 9.1% inflation, showing they will act if inflation resurges.
INSIGHT

Unemployment Lowers Inflation Pressure

  • Higher unemployment exerts downward pressure on inflation by reducing consumer spending.
  • The Fed must balance fighting inflation with avoiding a deep recession tied to job losses.
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