MRKT Call Iran, Oil, and the Market's False Sense of Security
Mar 26, 2026
Liz Thomas, market strategist known for macro and commodities analysis. She discusses oil supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz and how shipping disruptions could constrain markets. She warns markets may be underpricing a prolonged conflict and inflation pressure. She outlines energy's bite into consumer spending and what higher oil means for stocks, sectors, and Fed policy.
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Supply Shock Drives Market Volatility
- The market reacts to whether a situation is better or worse day-to-day, not absolute good or bad.
- Liz Thomas says supply shocks from the Iran conflict are the primary market disruptor driving volatility and inflation expectations higher.
200-Day Breach Signals Elevated Downside Risk
- Breaching the S&P 200-day moving average increases downside risk and signals market weakness.
- Liz notes we're only ~7% below the high, so a larger flush or normal correction is still possible.
Don't Buy Energy ETFs As A Long Bet Right Now
- Avoid buying broad energy ETFs late in a geopolitical-driven run unless you're a trader.
- Liz trimmed a winning energy stock and refrained from adding, warning XLE is a trade not a long-term safe buy now.