SemiAnalysis Weekly Memory, Oil, Geopolitics, and Macroeconomics
17 snips
Mar 13, 2026 Joey Brookhart, SaaS and market analyst who tracks AI adoption and monetization. Malcolm Splitter, economist focused on macro and labor-market measurement. Ray Wang, memory-market specialist modeling DRAM/HBM supply and pricing. They discuss memory shortages and hyperscaler capex, liken memory to oil in scarcity dynamics, explore enterprise-driven token demand and regional pricing, and debate how AI breaks GDP and macro models.
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Memory Shortage Is Like An Oil Crisis
- Malcolm compares the memory shortage to an oil crisis: necessary inputs command any price because firms must have them to remain competitive.
- He argues marginal economic value of AI compels hyperscalers to spend whatever it takes now or risk existential loss.
Full Token Access Felt Like Time Travel
- Malcolm describes moving from a bank with restricted AI tools to using token-rich models at SemiAnalysis and finishing in days what used to take a team of 100.
- He says full access to tokens made him feel like a time traveler and massively amplified individual productivity.
Motivation Determines Consumer AI Adoption
- Personal AI adoption depends on motivation and clear tasks; casual users stick to chatbots, builders discover transformative powers when they create with code+cloud.
- Ray notes many won't pay for pro plans, but building once triggers deeper use.