Nate Cohn, domestic correspondent for The Upshot at The New York Times, dives into a major new poll about the 2020 presidential race. He reveals President Trump’s strong competitiveness in key swing states and the challenges Democratic candidates face in regaining white working-class voters. The discussion also highlights how gender bias and perceptions of electability impact candidates, like Elizabeth Warren, while Joe Biden edges ahead in Iowa. Additionally, Cohn shares insights on the contrasting dynamics of polling in states like Iowa and Michigan.
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insights INSIGHT
2020 Election Poll
The New York Times conducted a poll on the 2020 election due to Democrats' focus on electability and the 2016 polling errors.
They aimed to understand which candidates and messages would resonate in the general election.
insights INSIGHT
2016 Polling Errors
In 2016, polls inaccurately predicted a wide Hillary Clinton win in battleground states.
This was partly due to underrepresenting white working-class voters, Trump's base.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Polling Challenges
The Times' polling involved hundreds of thousands of calls to get 5,000 respondents.
Pollsters faced challenges like low response rates and hostile reactions.
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The New York Times and Siena College conducted a major new poll, tackling the biggest questions about the 2020 presidential race: How likely is President Trump to be re-elected and which Democrat is best positioned to defeat him?
The results reveal that the president remains highly competitive in the battleground states likeliest to decide his re-election, with Democratic candidates struggling to win back the support of white working-class voters who backed Mr. Trump in 2016.
The poll also presents a snapshot of how the top Democratic candidates might fare in the general election — a critical question for Democratic voters hoping to take back the White House.
Guest: Nate Cohn, a domestic correspondent for The Upshot at The New York Times. For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily.
Background reading:
The new poll suggests Senator Elizabeth Warren might struggle with some battleground swing voters, and found evidence that both gender bias and ideological doubts were hurting her.
The top Democratic presidential candidates are locked in a close race in the Iowa caucuses, a key early test in the nomination race. But there, Ms. Warren currently has a slight edge.
The Daily 