Hudson Institute Events Podcast The Military Balance with Iran: A Strategic Assessment
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Mar 13, 2026 Can Kasapoğlu, a senior fellow and open-source military analyst on Middle East and Iranian forces. He breaks down reported strikes in Tehran and authenticity. He explains declines in Iranian missile launcher capacity and how long-endurance drone strikes are executed. He discusses coordination between US, Israel and partners and the strategic choices shaping Iran’s military and political trajectory.
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Ballistic Launcher Attrition Has Cut Iranian Salvo Tempo
- Coalition strikes have sharply reduced Iranian ballistic transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) inventory to roughly 100 remaining units.
- John Kasapoğlu cites open-source and field studies showing dramatic drop in missile salvo tempo tied to TEL attrition rather than drone capacity.
Drones Are Harder To Cripple Than Missiles
- Iranian drone stocks remain resilient because Shahid-style drones are cheap, runway-independent, and use dual‑use components from smuggling networks.
- Kasapoğlu warns drone campaigns won't decline easily despite pressure on missile launchers.
Tehran Hit Shows Tactical Surveillance Reach
- The strike on a Basij checkpoint in Tehran proves coalition tactical‑level surveillance and possibly ground teams for real‑time targeting.
- Kasapoğlu says pinpoint hits in dense urban areas require more than strategic ISR and imply on‑the‑ground or persistent drone presence.