The Loonie Hour Oil Prices Are Surging — Is Inflation Next?
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Mar 13, 2026 Oil surges past $100 and the ripple effects on agriculture, shipping and fertilizer prices take center stage. They explore private credit stress, appraisal headaches in housing and who might buy distressed condos. Geopolitical shipping risks and hidden supply vulnerabilities for items like helium and semiconductors also get attention.
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Blanket Appraisals Have Been Masking Condo Risk
- OSFI has long known banks used blanket appraisals to mask post‑peak presale condo shortfalls and largely tolerated it to avoid developer insolvencies.
- Steve Saretsky explains banks issued 100%+ LTV loans so buyers close despite appraisal gaps, shifting risk down the road.
Markets Are Repricing Bank Of Canada Tightening
- Market pricing now shows bets on Bank of Canada tightening again with a high probability of no move next meeting but rising odds for mid‑year hikes.
- Rich Diaz notes OIS curve moved to price a July hike and an 80% chance of a December 2026 hike, shifting expectations fast.
Twinkie Bet On Bank Of Canada Decision
- The hosts make a light-hearted Twinkie bet about the Bank of Canada's decision to highlight market uncertainty.
- Rich Diaz declines taking a contrarian bet against a 93% probability of no move, joking about reputational risk.