Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski Adam Mead: 850 Pages Of Berkshire: What The Numbers Don't Tell You | Why Trust, Conviction, And Liability Management Matter More Than Spreadsheets
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Apr 27, 2026 Adam Mead, professional investor and author of a 850-page Berkshire history, joins to unpack recent seismic moves. He highlights why a second edition was needed and how pandemic-era choices changed the story. Conversations cover Buffett’s airline decision, huge buybacks, Japanese trading-house deals, succession to Greg Abel, and a sum-of-the-parts view that points to roughly $1 trillion intrinsic value.
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Railroad Valuation Uses Trailing Earnings And 15x
- Mead values BNSF by trailing four-quarter after-tax earnings capitalized at ~15x, yielding about $80–90B, and notes depreciation below replacement implies upside.
- He cites alternative analysts (Chris Blumstrand) with higher estimates but shows rationale for a conservative multiple.
BHE Value Depends On Wildfire Risk And Tax Credits
- Berkshire Hathaway Energy's valuation is impacted by wildfire liabilities and political risk; Mead normalizes earnings and credits deferred tax benefits to reach a conservative ~$70B value.
- He references transaction-implied valuations (Greg Abel's 1% sale vs Scott family sale) to explain swings.
MSR Businesses Are Massive And Fragmented
- Mead aggregates Manufacturing, Service, and Retail (MSR) subsidiaries and applies a 15x multiple to net earnings, estimating roughly $205B due to scale and embedded finance like Clayton Homes.
- He warns many subsidiaries are themselves large and data is fragmented across filings.
