The Rational Reminder Podcast

Top Learnings from 2022 (plus 23 in 23 Special Guest Shaun Tomson) (EP.235)

24 snips
Jan 12, 2023
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INSIGHT

Why ICAPM Changes Portfolio Thinking

  • ICAPM expands CAPM by adding investor hedging needs across future states, not just mean and variance.
  • Ben Felix explained ICAPM shows portfolios differ because investors care about covariances with labor income and future opportunities, altering optimal allocations.
INSIGHT

Stocks And Bonds Can Lose Real Value Over 30 Years

  • Long‑run returns show nontrivial loss probabilities: stocks, bonds, and bills can lose purchasing power over 30 years.
  • Scott Cedarburg's bootstrap across countries found ~12–13% domestic stock real-loss risk and 27% for bonds in broad samples.
INSIGHT

Money Is Social Trust Backed By Issuer Credit

  • Money is primarily a social construct and unit of account tied to issuer creditworthiness, not just a medium of exchange.
  • Ben cited Graeber, Ingham and Cochran: value of money depends on trust and government's ability to repay, shaping inflation risks.
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