The Daily Oscars 2026: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win?
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Mar 8, 2026 
Manohla Dargis, chief film critic for The New York Times, offers sharp, authoritative takes on this year’s Oscar field. She frames likely winners versus personal picks. Short takes cover standout lead performances, surprising contenders, cinematic risks, and films that signal a hopeful future for Hollywood.
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Academy Rewards Big Emotional Performances
- The Academy favors big, demonstrative emotional performances for Best Actress.
- Dargis points to Jesse Buckley's harrowing birth and grief scenes in Hamnet as classic Oscar-friendly, sweep-you-away work.
Quiet Complexity Versus Big Oscar Moments
- Renate Reinsve's Sentimental Value is a quieter, more complex Best Actress contender compared with Hamnet.
- Dargis highlights a theater-auditorium scene where Reinsve's face visibly ripples with layered emotions as Elle Fanning speaks.
An Extremely Competitive Best Actor Race
- The Best Actor field is unusually deep and unpredictable this year with three strong contenders.
- Dargis names Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) as all legitimately likely winners.