Pekingology Xi Jinping’s Plan for Taiwan
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Sep 19, 2024 Kharis Templeman, a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution and Lecturer on East Asian Studies at Stanford, dives deep into Taiwan's political evolution. He discusses the implications of President Lai Ching-te's policies in a politically divided Taiwan. The conversation reveals Beijing's strategic timelines, particularly the significance of 2027 in military readiness. Templeman also examines the Taiwan independence dilemma and the critical role of U.S. support in maintaining peace amidst growing tensions with China.
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Beijing's Responses
- Beijing's muted response to Lai's election victory suggests a wait-and-see approach.
- The stronger reaction to his inauguration speech indicates sensitivity to his language.
Beijing's Sovereignty Focus
- For Beijing, the cross-strait issue is primarily about sovereignty, not semiconductors or democracy.
- It stems from the 1949 assertion that the PRC is the rightful government of all of China.
Continuity and Change
- Beijing's Taiwan strategy has shown continuity since 2005, with a soft track focused on public opinion and a hard track on military capabilities.
- The election of Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 led to a harder line from Beijing.