Perspective with Ryan Bridge: Is this National's election to lose?

So we've got an election date, and it's the date pundits have been picking since late last year - November 7th.

This election is National's to lose. The only question really is how much influence ACT and or New Zealand First will have in any future Government.

Don't get me wrong - it'll be a close race.

Here's some easy picks - National will get more votes than Labour, New Zealand First will outperform ACT, New Zealand First will steal from Labour and nip at their heels, Te Pati Māori's reputation is already in the bin so the Māori seats are anyone's guess at this point.

And Winston Peters, as always, will decide who actually wins the election. He's ruled out working with Chippy but not Labour.

Here's the crucial point. Winston Peters cannot, politically, enter a deal propped up by or supported by the Greens or Te Pati Māori. In pretty much every poll this term, Labour has needed both of them to get close to the magic 61 seats.

Now, you could argue that National might stumble and Labour could surge. But the chances of this happening - I would put at around 20-30 percent. So very unlikely.

The economic recovery's underway. Summer will be round the corner come November. But most importantly, people won't switch horses mid-stream when that recovery has been so hard fought.

The memory, particularly in Auckland, is too short for voters to forget about Labour's Covid mess and unbridled spending on outrageous and expensive things.

Chris Hipkins today also announced a date - his wedding. He says it'll be held in 2027. That means Toni is likely going to marry an unemployed bloke from the Hutt.

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