The CEO Retort with Tim El-Sheikh Scott Lucas: Will the Iran war chaos lead to a global economic depression?
In this replay of the CEOR Live episode streamed on March 26th, 2026, Scott Lucas returns to discuss the escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, exploring the complex yet chaotic geopolitical dynamics at play.
We discussed the concerning news of Trump preparing for potential military action under the guise of diplomacy, with strategic moves that could lead to a ground invasion of Iran's strategic islands.
Economically, the situation is dire, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical chokepoint for global oil trade. Tensions have already driven oil prices up, and the strategic control of the strait allows Iran to manipulate passage for political gain.
We also discussed the often-overlooked severe environmental impacts of this war, including potential oil spills and infrastructure damage that could lead to long-lasting ecological and health harms.
Join the conversation now and learn about the geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors in this high-stakes, chaotic situation.
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Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Preview
(00:02:38) – The chaos of a week in the Iran war and widening Middle East tensions, with global energy crisis driven by Gulf strikes and sanctions bypasses
(00:14:53) – Ad to help you navigate media bias00:16:58 – Israeli attacks and missile defence failures, and the risks of ground invasion and military logistics on dragging the Gulf states as "official" US allies
(00:24:00) – The legal and constitutional questions about presidential war power, the US War Powers Act and historical precedents, and congressional attempts to limit presidential authority
(00:28:19) – The economic fallout and the ‘boil the frog’ effect on US inflation, Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump’s contradictory signals on Iranian oil sanctions
(00:41:20) – The religious and ideological stakes of a “holy war” scenario that make this war particularly dangerous, with wider implications
(00:48:40) – Emerging divisions within the US and Israeli intelligence operations and targeted killings
(00:52:00) – The potential for regime change versus survival in Iran and civil war, with regional ripple effects, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias
(00:59:08) – War profiteering and illegal insider trades normalised by the Trump administration and his brooligarch supporters
(01:05:00) – The potential for a full-scale war and its unpredictable toll, and the dangerous logic of possible nuclear escalation
Episode Notes & Citations:
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