Macro Voices MacroVoices #499 Has The Luke Gromen Moment Arrived?
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Sep 25, 2025 
Luke Gromen, the founder of Forest for the Trees and a macro researcher, shares his insights on financial markets. He discusses the potential for a secular decline in the U.S. dollar, the importance of gold and Bitcoin, and what de-dollarization could look like. Gromen also highlights geopolitical shifts, especially related to China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. He warns of growing political risks and explores how policymakers might navigate rising inflation while outlining market implications and trade strategies.
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Foreign Exposure As A Vulnerability
- Gromen warns political convulsions could trigger rapid foreign exodus of dollar assets and market panic.
- He highlights foreigners' $62T gross exposure as a vulnerability to sudden outflows.
Supply Chain Conferences Miss Strategic Risks
- Erik recounts being invited to a supply-chain conference and learning commercial attendees don't analyze military-critical dependencies.
- Gromen and Erik agree military supply-chain analysis is often classified and absent from commercial forums.
Reshoring Is Costly And Inflationary
- Gromen argues reshoring from China isn't feasible quickly and would be highly inflationary.
- He links offshoring to suppressed inflation and the bond-market-friendly order that now constrains policy choices.
