The David Lin Report Market Collapse From Government Shutdown? What You Need To Know | Bob Elliott
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Oct 9, 2025 Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO of Unlimited, dives into the dynamics of the US economy, highlighting its slowdown amid rising stock markets driven by AI enthusiasm. He discusses the limited impact of government shutdowns on GDP, the inflationary effects of tariffs, and surprising asset performances in 2025, especially gold. Elliott suggests bonds could outperform in 2026, despite weak labor signals, and explains how mega-cap companies influence indices. He also emphasizes the importance of tactical portfolio positioning in a late-cycle environment.
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Tariffs Are Re-Inflating Core Goods
- Tariffs have flipped core goods prices from falling to rising, pushing core CPI from mid-twos toward three percent.
- That erodes household spending power as wage growth runs only about 3–3.5%.
Cuts Helped Asset Prices, Not Growth
- Fed rate cuts mainly worked by lowering long-term bond yields, which supported asset prices rather than boosting real growth.
- Elliott says most easing benefits are already priced in and further cuts require worse economic conditions.
Triangulate Private Data During A Shutdown
- Use private and alternative data like ADP, credit-card flows, and Chicago Fed models when government reports are delayed.
- Bob Elliott monitors these sources and recent signals show abrupt spending slowdowns.