The David Lin Report Trump's Tariffs Ruled Illegal, Iran Strike Ready; How Will Markets React? | Matt Gertken
Feb 23, 2026
Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, offers sharp geopolitical and trade analysis. He breaks down the Supreme Court ruling on tariff authority and possible legal workarounds. He assesses Iran strike risks, military posture, and how markets and commodities might tilt in response. He also covers political constraints around tariffs and election-year economic tools.
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Market Expect Tariff Rates To Fall After Section 122
- Expect the administration to use Section 122 temporarily and then let tariffs decline if Congress refuses to ratify them.
- Gertken advises markets should anticipate tariffs falling from ~19% back toward ~9% over months as legal options expire.
IEEPA Preserves Emergency Trade Powers With ACheck
- The decision still leaves broad emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
- Gertken notes presidents can prohibit imports/exports in emergencies but must bear the full economic cost of such draconian measures.
Administrative Route Pushes Tariff Pressure Toward China
- The White House can pivot to Section 301 investigations focusing on IP theft and tech transfer, concentrating pressure on China.
- Gertken expects Section 301 to steer policy toward China-specific tariffs rather than broad global targets.