Bloomberg Surveillance Markets Price in April CPI
17 snips
May 12, 2026 
Constance Hunter, chief economist focusing on inflation and labor markets. Ed Yardeni, market strategist known for earnings-led equity calls. Marc Pinto, head of private credit tracking liquidity and underwriting stress. Jordan Rochester, FICC strategist covering FX, geopolitics and UK politics. They discuss CPI surprises, energy and shelter inflation, private credit’s first stress test, equity rally drivers, and currency and geopolitical market impacts.
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April CPI Jump Driven By Shelter And Oil
- CPI rose to 3.8% year-over-year with shelter and transportation services pushing the pickup in inflation.
- Constance Hunter warns shelter technicals and higher oil-driven transport costs could lift Q2 average above 4.2%.
Inflection Data Lags Geopolitical Shocks
- Data can be rear-view during inflection points; geopolitical shocks like a closed Strait of Hormuz aren't fully priced into inflation or equities.
- Hunter flags continued closure through summer as an unpriced inflation risk that could change trajectories.
Watch Services And Job Mix Before Counting On Cuts
- Expect the Fed to shift to a neutral bias rather than cut if inflation reaccelerates alongside odd payroll composition.
- Hunter recommends watching jobs composition and services inflation to judge Fed path.