The Rest Is Politics 532. The Trump-Xi Showdown and Putin’s Conscription Con
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May 13, 2026 A brisk rundown of Trump’s high-stakes China visit and the bargaining over trade, AI and Taiwan. A look at whether Beijing and Washington can trade concessions on Iran. An examination of Russia’s mounting casualties, recruitment tactics in Africa and signs of shifting momentum. A lighter detour into urban trees and book recommendations.
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US China Bipolarity Reshapes Global Order
- US and China now form a bipolar economic power covering roughly half the global economy and shape geopolitics through trade, tech, and military spending.
- Rory Stewart highlights rising Chinese military and economic clout versus US defense spending and the shift to treating China as the primary global adversary.
Trump's China Visit Looks Transactional Not Strategic
- Trump's China policy is ambiguous and appears to prioritize business wins like Boeing and soybeans over hawkish security aims.
- Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell note Trump is sidelining hardline China hawks and bringing business figures such as Tim Cook and Elon Musk to frame the visit as trade-focused.
Taiwan Language Shift Could Rock Regional Security
- China will press Trump to soften US language on Taiwan, seeking a change from 'we do not support Taiwanese independence' to 'we oppose Taiwanese independence'.
- Rory warns such a linguistic shift would deeply alarm Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea given Taiwan's strategic role and chip supply importance.
