Geopolitical Economy Report Is Trump destroying the Western alliance? Will Europe break with USA and ally with China?
Feb 1, 2026
They discuss whether recent U.S. moves and tariffs are pushing Europe toward closer ties with China. Topics include Greenland and Arctic resource concerns, critical minerals and rare earth supply chains, and European trade deals with India and Mercosur. They also cover Europe’s energy and tech dependencies, NATO’s future, and whether selling U.S. assets could be used as leverage.
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EU Split: Investment Seekers Versus Industrial Protectors
- Europe is splitting: southern states seek Chinese investment while Germany fears industrial competition.
- Norton explains Spain attracts Chinese EVs while Germany resists due to its car industry vulnerability.
Trade Diversification Accelerated By Pressure
- Trump's pressure accelerated EU diversification toward India and Mercosur trade deals.
- Norton sees these agreements as medium-term shifts prompted by U.S. antagonism.
Persistent Economic Ties To The U.S.
- Despite diversification, Europe remains economically dependent on the U.S. with large shares of trade.
- Norton presents EU and UK export/import percentages to show lingering dependency.