The Market Huddle I WALK IN CARRYING ROAD KILL (Guest: Trader Ferg)
23 snips
Feb 28, 2026 Fergus Cullen (Trader Ferg), an independent investor known for contrarian commodity and resource calls, shares his take on rhodium, platinum and miner reratings. He discusses oil’s missing barrels, drillship and oil‑services upside, and China’s industrial scaling. He also covers inflation vs dollar dynamics, emerging‑market exchange ideas, and tail‑risk hedging concerns.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Buy Small Long Dated Puts As Crash Insurance
- Hedge rare tail-market correlation events with long-dated OTM puts but manage cost and roll risk; keep position sizes small.
- Ferg bought small long-dated puts as insurance despite normally avoiding buying puts due to cost and negative carry.
Bought His Dad A Mercedes After Dad Backed His Career Changes
- Ferg's father adapted from farming into property investing to support Fergus's career changes and later embraced investing and rally driving again.
- As a thank-you, Ferg bought his dad a C63 AMG Mercedes so he could race again and brought him back to Targa events.
Index Flatness Masks Intense Underlying Dispersion
- The S&P 500 can look flat while underlying dispersion is extreme; 80% of stocks moved more than 5% YTD despite the index being unchanged.
- Bespoke data showed only ~20% of S&P names were within ±5% of their year start, signaling intense sector rotation beneath a calm headline index.