Line Your Own Pockets Curve Fitting is Easy to Avoid
4 snips
Feb 23, 2026 A lively dive into curve fitting in trading strategies. They explain why curve fitting exists on a spectrum and common equity-curve pitfalls. Five practical ways people accidentally maximize curve fitting are outlined. Listeners get a compact checklist of easy-to-apply safeguards and advice on testing, monitoring live trades, and seeking trusted feedback.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
What Curve Fitting Actually Means
- Avoid torturing data to make an equity curve look perfect; that's the core of curve fitting.
- Michael Noss defines it as removing every negative trade until the backtest looks flawless and then failing live.
Curve Fitting Rarely Ends Careers
- The worst-case outcome from accidental curve fitting is usually limited, not catastrophic.
- Dave May's survey found no horror stories where curve fitting alone destroyed a trading career; collapse usually reflects sizing risk, not the model.
Start From A Proven Base Strategy
- Keep a strong unoptimized base strategy that demonstrably has an edge before you optimize.
- Michael Noss: if base profit factor is 1.2 and optimized says 5, worst case you revert toward ~1.2 and still have a workable system.