Yet Another Value Podcast Accrued Interest's Simeon McMillan on $VSNT and the evolving media space
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Mar 14, 2026 Simeon McMillan, a media analyst and former senior operator at major media companies, breaks down the shifting media landscape. He discusses Comcast’s Versant spin-off and why 2028 matters. Short takes cover CNBC’s trophy status, Golf Now’s hidden value, YouTube’s impact on viewing and carriage fights, and how sports-rights and streaming economics reshape valuations.
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Versant Overearns Because Of NBC's Protective Halo
- Versant's financials are temporarily boosted by the protective halo of NBC, hiding how ad sales and carriage were structured under a single ad-sales umbrella.
- Once the Morris Trust restrictions lift in 2028 and ad-sales separate, Versant will face much harsher renegotiations and potential ad/ carriage losses that materially change forecasts.
Marquee Events Mask Weak Channel Economics
- The advertising model for linear networks depends on portfolio sales where marquee live events like the Olympics and Super Bowl force buyers to take weaker channels.
- When Versant loses NBC's marquee leverage in 2028, advertisers can unbundle and likely drop or pay much less for Versant channels.
Wait For 2028 Before Committing To Versant
- Avoid valuing Versant with stable multiples or dividend theses until the 2028 separation risk is resolved.
- Simeon models steep free cash flow declines (15–20% annually) and sees intrinsic value nearer $27/share versus recent $35–36 trading.