More or Less Have more than 100 private schools been forced to close because of VAT?
37 snips
Jan 14, 2026 
In this discussion, Tom Coles, a reporter investigating private school closures, dives into whether 105 schools really shut due to VAT policies. Professor Sir John Curtice debunks claims of a church attendance revival, revealing a significant decline instead. Nathan Gower challenges the government’s assertion that 10.8 million families rely on X (Twitter) for news, uncovering misleading data. Together, they unpack numerical claims in the news, revealing surprising truths and clarifying public misunderstandings.
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Special Schools Distort The Numbers
- Many closed institutions were special schools funded by local authorities and exempt from VAT.
- Meanwhile many special independent schools have been opening, so sector capacity changes are complex.
Demographics And Small Size Matter
- Most closed mainstream independent schools were small, often under 150 capacity and half full.
- Demographic decline in primary-age children and pre-existing financial fragility explain closures beyond VAT.
Measure Pupil Numbers Not Closures
- Track pupil numbers and capacity, not closure counts, to judge sector health.
- Betters measures compare total pupils and capacity changes over time.