AST SpaceMobile Podcast

Anpanman - The Inevitability of SpaceMobile: Bluebirds, Bond Math, and Blue Origin

Feb 20, 2026
Deep dive into the recent convertible bond offering and how arbitrage and delta hedging pressured the stock. Update on Bluebird 7's encapsulation in a New Glenn fairing and likely launch timing scenarios. Discussion of pursuing 2 GHz spectrum worldwide and strategic ties with major carriers. Preview of upcoming Q4 results and production cadence at the Texas facility.
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
INSIGHT

How Convert Arb Pressures Stock

  • Convertible bond arbitrageurs drive short selling by hedging deltas around volatile stock moves.
  • That shorting can amplify downward pressure but usually settles within a few days after issuance.
INSIGHT

Convert Math Suggests Hedging Is Largely Done

  • The recent $1.15B convert equals about 9.9M potential shares and likely only caused ~1.8M shares of shorting from arbitrageurs.
  • Anpanman argues most hedging pressure has already run its course after initial days of trading.
ADVICE

Position For Catalysts After Hedging Eases

  • Monitor upcoming catalysts now that hedging pressure has eased because the stock can rally quickly.
  • Consider taking selective upside exposure ahead of launches and earnings if you can tolerate volatility.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app