Business History Betting on Taylor Swift or Who'll Be Made Pope: The Past and Present of Prediction Markets
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Mar 25, 2026 A live mash-up exploring prediction markets from modern platforms like Kalshi to centuries-old papal betting. Stories range from a crowd market demo and rapid word-based trades to poker players turning research into big wins. They trace historical precedents like Renaissance conclave markets, US policymaker backlash, DARPA experiments, and debates over moral lines and regulation.
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How Modern Prediction Markets Signal Probabilities
- Modern prediction markets let anyone buy a probability price (e.g., 10¢ for a $1 payout) that aggregates information into a market signal.
- Hosts explained Polymarket and Kalshi display changing odds in real time during events like Powell press conferences, shifting as new information arrives.
How A Flight From Alaska Revealed Sarah Palin
- A professional trader nicknamed Domer turned prediction markets into a career by finding informational edges.
- He spotted Sarah Palin via an odd Alaska flight into a small Ohio airport during McCain's VP logistics and turned $1,000 into $25,000.
Parabolic Mic And A Plane Ticket Won The Anthem Bet
- A 21‑year‑old, Caden Booth, used a parabolic mic and on‑site rehearsal monitoring to time Charlie Puth’s Super Bowl anthem and bet accordingly.
- He traveled to San Francisco, timed a rehearsal at 1:51, placed his market bet, and won thousands.