The Decibel Making sense of a stock market that doesn’t make sense right now
42 snips
May 12, 2026 
Tim Shufelt, an investment reporter at The Globe and Mail who covers markets and earnings, breaks down why stocks keep rising amid global turmoil. He explores earnings growth, the AI spending boom, why markets look past geopolitical shocks, and how investor mood and guidance move prices. Short takes on sector winners and hidden volatility round out the conversation.
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Trump Threat Did Not Trigger Market Drop
- Tim recalls a day Trump posted on Truth Social threatening Iran and markets still ticked higher.
- S&P 500 rose marginally the morning after the post, illustrating market detachment from headline shocks.
Markets React To Mood Short Term But Earnings Long Term
- Short-term market moves are driven by sentiment, surprises and mood rather than fundamentals.
- Over years markets track corporate earnings, smoothing out day-to-day volatility into a well-behaved uptrend.
Earnings Boom Is The Main Engine Of The Rally
- Corporate earnings are currently the dominant force driving the rally.
- S&P 500 earnings are up almost 30% year-over-year, an unusually high growth rate during earnings season.