The Long View Claudia Sahm: Thinking Through Scenarios in a Whiplash Economy
17 snips
Apr 28, 2026 
Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm rule, brings macro and household finance chops. She dissects the “whiplash economy,” risk-focused scenario thinking, and how energy shocks reshape sentiment. Conversations cover Fed communication, tariffs’ costs, AI’s economic effects, and threats to US data quality.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Short Run Pain But Long Run Inflation Expectations Matter
- Consumer sentiment is plunging from repeated price shocks, but long-run inflation expectations remain anchored.
- Sahm highlights the key Fed concern: will households treat higher inflation as persistent or temporary?
Fed Likely To Hold Until Clear Inflation Progress
- Sahm expects the Fed to remain patient and data-driven, likely holding rates rather than hiking despite recent cost shocks.
- She warns the Fed will want to see clear progress on inflation before cutting, which could delay easing.
AI Could Be Disinflationary Long Term But Transition Is Messy
- AI is a potential long-run disinflationary, productivity-boosting general purpose technology but its transition is uncertain and could raise demand and energy costs now.
- Sahm cautions the Fed will likely wait for data rather than preemptively cut for AI benefits.