Reuters Morning Bid Week Ahead: Gulf drives markets
Mar 14, 2026
Markets react to Gulf-driven oil shocks and what that means for central bank policy. A full week of rate decisions and shifting Fed timing are previewed. Europe’s energy vulnerability and lessons from past shocks are explored. Hidden risks in private credit and concentrated software loans are flagged as potential trouble beneath the surface.
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Oil Shock Forces Central Banks To Rethink Rate Cuts
- Global central banks are re-evaluating rate paths because the Gulf-driven oil shock raises headline inflation risks.
- Mike Dolan notes markets have dropped one expected Fed cut and now price fewer easing moves if oil stays elevated.
Wait For Durability Signals Before Pricing Policy Changes
- Watch central banks for signs they will 'wait and see' on oil-driven inflation before changing policy.
- Mike Dolan advises markets and policymakers will monitor supply-chain durability in the Gulf before acting on cuts or hikes.
Europe's Energy Vulnerability Could Trigger Rapid Rate Rises
- Europe faces structural exposure to energy shocks and remembers the post-Ukraine oil surge that produced double-digit inflation.
- Mike Dolan warns ECB had to raise rates from negative to around 4% within months after 2022 supply shocks.