Radio Davos Welcome to Cold War Two: historian Niall Ferguson on geopolitics in 2026
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Feb 19, 2026 
Niall Ferguson, historian and author who studies geopolitics, economic history and tech, offers a sweeping take on today’s US–China rivalry as a Cold War analogue. He explores how network platforms fuel cultural polarization. He weighs when competition spurs progress and when it risks conflict. He flags overlooked geological shocks and ends on a cautiously optimistic note about technology empowering individuals.
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Cold War II Framed By Tech And Trade
- The current great-power rivalry resembles a second Cold War between the US and China due to tech and ideological differences.
- Unlike Cold War I, the US and China are deeply economically intertwined, making conflict more complex and risky.
AI Raises The Stakes In Geopolitics
- New technologies, especially artificial intelligence, make this rivalry potentially more dangerous and unpredictable than the first Cold War.
- Nuclear weapons remain, but AI adds a destabilizing layer to strategic competition.
Platforms Fuel Political Confessionals
- Network platforms and ad-driven business models amplify polarization by promoting inflammatory content.
- Political allegiance is becoming confessional, resembling religious divides of earlier centuries.