
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Assessing the Iran War's "structural damage" with Harvard economist Gita Gopinath
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Apr 11, 2026 Gita Gopinath, Harvard economist and former IMF deputy leader, offers a concise take on how the Iran war is reshaping global economics. She discusses rising energy-driven inflation and fragile growth. She highlights long-term structural damage from trade fragmentation, uneven national exposures, and how AI and China’s strategies fit into a more regionally divided world.
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Energy Shock Hits Vulnerable Importers Hardest
- Fragile, energy-importing countries face acute risk; shocks can derail recoveries in Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
- Gita notes production shutdowns and LPG shortages in India already forcing restaurants to close.
U.S. Economy More Insulated From Middle East Shock
- The U.S. is relatively insulated: inflation rises but GDP impact is smaller (≈0.1–0.15 percentage points).
- Higher energy export revenues only partially offset greater household price pressures.
China's Stockpiles And Diversification Boost Resilience
- China is better positioned short-term due to stockpiles and diversified suppliers, boosting resilience.
- Gita says Beijing has consciously built strategic stockpiles since tariff shocks and will double down on self-reliance.

