Naturalistic Decision Making #55: The Causal Landscape of the 2025 World Series with Gary Klein
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Jan 30, 2026 
Gary Klein, cognitive psychologist and pioneer of Naturalistic Decision Making, offers a concise mini bio and decades-long expertise. He maps the causal landscape of the 2025 World Series. Short takes cover why causal landscapes beat root-cause stories, key playable factors like dramatic plays and managerial choices, the role of non-events and injuries, and how counterfactuals and mutability shape practical analysis.
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Three Criteria For Causes
- Gary explains three criteria for calling something a cause: covariance, mutability, and propensity.
- Propensity (plausibility) relies on mental models and determines whether a factor sensibly fits as a cause.
Non-Events Can Be Causal
- Non-events matter: expected failures (like weak relief pitching) didn't happen and offensive stars underperformed.
- The Dodgers won despite scoring fewer total runs across the series than the Blue Jays.
Use Plausibility As A Stopping Rule
- Use plausibility and mutability as stopping rules when building a causal landscape to avoid endless expansion.
- Focus on changeable factors you can reasonably imagine altering to influence outcomes.
