Hub Podcasts Carney vs. chaos: How global shocks are strengthening his hand
Mar 19, 2026
Amanda Galbraith, co-founder and president at Oyster Group and political strategist, and David Coletto, founder and chair of Abacus Data and polling expert, discuss why Liberals hold a big lead. They explore which voter groups are shifting. They examine how global shocks and foreign policy moves boost political standing and how opposition strategy shifts when international threats dominate.
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Carney's Approval Is Driving A Liberal Surge
- Mark Carney's approval and government approval have hit highs not seen since 2021, driving a large Liberal lead in vote intention.
- Abacus finds a surge in confidence tied to Carney's personal ratings and a widening gap between those who think the country is heading right versus wrong.
Global Shocks Are Reallocating Voter Loyalties
- The Liberal lead is pulling from both NDP and some conservative-leaning voters who now prioritise external threats over domestic issues.
- External shocks like Venezuela and Iran increase salience of foreign policy and boost perceived need for Carney's leadership abroad.
Use Foreign Travel To Signal Competence
- Do position leadership travel as competence when external threats dominate the agenda, because it signals leverage and engagement to anxious voters.
- Amanda notes Carney's overseas time reassures Canadians worried about global threats and is politically useful now.