The Downballot The Twin Cities' fierce response to ICE—at the ballot box
Jan 29, 2026
Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ and veteran election watcher, explains DDHQ’s expanded data-driven coverage. He discusses the St. Paul special election surge, how ICE deployments shaped turnout, surprising drivers of recent House retirements, and which 2026 primaries and Senate races to watch.
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Historic GOP Underperformance
- The Republican got 4% of the vote, roughly a third of Donald Trump's 13% share in the district.
- Decision Desk's database shows this is the lowest GOP performance ever in a D-vs-R special election.
Intimidation Can Backfire At The Ballot Box
- Voting surged in the Twin Cities despite ICE presence and intimidation, showing voters weren't cowed.
- The hosts argue such federal intimidation could backfire and mobilize a strong local backlash.
Hand Warmers Used By Local Volunteers
- Activist staging in Minneapolis–St. Paul included practical support items like bulk hand warmers for volunteers.
- Right-wing commentators misread these grassroots supplies as evidence of paid operations.