HousingWire Daily Mortgage spreads continue to keep mortgage rates in check as Iran war spreads
14 snips
Mar 6, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst known for data-driven mortgage and housing market analysis. He explains how mortgage spreads have cushioned rate swings. He talks about the Iran war's limited effect on the 10-year yield. He links recent economic data to yield moves. He reviews Fed MBS buying, oil and shipping risks, and what to watch in jobs and housing indicators.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Mortgage Spreads Are Dampening Rate Volatility
- Mortgage spreads are acting as a defensive buffer that compresses volatility and kept mortgage rates from rising despite geopolitical-driven yield pressure.
- Logan Mohtashami points to spreads absorbing upward movement when the 10-year tested 4.15% and helped push mortgage rates lower.
Use Jobs Report To Gauge Near Term Yield Direction
- Watch Friday jobs data as the key test for whether yields will push higher; a strong report could lift the 10-year and mortgage rates.
- Logan specifically says if labor data improves and hawkish Fed rhetoric persists, yields could rise into the 4.40–4.60 range.
MBS Purchases Lowered Mortgage Rates Earlier Than Expected
- The Fed's earlier MBS buying program accelerated spread improvement, meaning current mortgage rates are notably lower than they otherwise would be.
- Logan estimates rates could be roughly 15–30 basis points higher without that intervention and says the move happened earlier than he expected.