The Milk Road Show How Deep Into the Bitcoin Bear Market Are We Now? w/ Julio Moreno
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Feb 2, 2026 Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant analyst who builds on-chain indicators like the bull score, returns to unpack bearish Bitcoin signals. He explains why key metrics flipped negative months ago. Topics include his bull score mechanics, ETF outflows, Coinbase premium shifts, stalled stablecoin growth, funding-rate trends, and price vs. the one-year moving average.
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ETF Demand Has Turned Negative
- U.S. spot ETFs shifted from net buyers to net sellers since Q4, removing a major source of demand for Bitcoin.
- ETF outflows this year contrast sharply with sizable purchases in the same period last year, weakening price support.
Coinbase Premium Turned Negative
- The Coinbase premium flipped from positive to negative since November, indicating weaker U.S. demand relative to other markets.
- Persistent negative premium is historically associated with weaker price performance, not rallies driven by U.S. buyers.
Stablecoin Growth Dried Up
- Stablecoin market-cap growth, especially USDT, has collapsed since mid-October, draining a key source of on-exchange liquidity.
- Less fresh stablecoin supply reduces 'dry powder' for traders and coincides with weaker price rallies.