UnHerd with Freddie Sayers Prof. Robert Pape: Is Iran winning the war?
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Mar 17, 2026 
Robert Pape, University of Chicago political scientist known for military strategy research, explains how Iran leverages the Strait of Hormuz with drones and missiles. He outlines a multi-stage escalation model. They debate tactical US strikes versus Iran's asymmetric campaign and the looming ground-power dilemma threatening global trade and alliances.
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Iran's New Leverage Over The Strait Of Hormuz
- Iran now controls traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after 18 days of conflict, shifting regional power dynamics.
- That control converts into leverage because the Strait carries 20% of world oil and was historically the US priority to prevent single-state domination.
Smart Bombs Won Tactics But Not Strategy
- Precision US strikes were tactically successful but failed to achieve strategic goals like regime removal or securing Iran's enriched uranium.
- Pape's historical study of air campaigns finds bombing alone never topples regimes, so tactical kills can produce strategic failure.
Iran's Horizontal Escalation With Drones And Mines
- Iran responded with horizontal escalation using precision drones and mines to disrupt shipping and punish Gulf states rather than confronting US forces directly.
- That campaign collapsed Gulf shipping flows by over 95% and spread costs across global markets and regional partners.