A Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war | RAND's top Russia expert Samuel Charap

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Mar 24, 2026

Samuel Charap, RAND’s Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy, offers decades of expertise on Russia-Ukraine relations. He argues a ceasefire could reduce killing but create fragile, miscalculation-prone peace. He outlines accidental escalation scenarios, snapback guarantees, phased settlements, defensive-only aid, and how to embed wider Russia-NATO talks to stabilize Europe.

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INSIGHT

Ceasefire Breakdowns Could Drag In Neighbors

Ceasefires commonly break down and a renewed Russia-Ukraine fight could draw in European neighbors more directly than today.
Charap highlights leaders' public promises to be 'much more deeply involved' as a driver of future entanglement.

INSIGHT

Grey Zone Attacks Risk Snowball Escalation

Hybrid sabotage and sub-threshold operations are escalating and risk tit-for-tat responses that snowball into bigger conflicts.
Charap notes paid agents blowing up factories and supply-chain subversion increase pressure on Central and Eastern European states to retaliate.

ADVICE

Get A Phased Ceasefire With A Framework Agreement

Negotiate a phased ceasefire with a framework agreement rather than an unstructured pause to stop killing and start longer talks.
Charap compares this to Good Friday and Dayton: phased withdrawal, monitoring, and a framework for detailed negotiations.

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Many people believe a ceasefire in Ukraine will leave Europe safer. But today's guest lays out how a deal could potentially generate insidious new risks — leaving us in a situation that's equally dangerous, just in different ways.

That’s the counterintuitive argument from Samuel Charap, Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at RAND. He’s not worried about a Russian blitzkrieg on Estonia. He forecasts instead a fragile peace that breaks down and drags in European neighbours; instability in Belarus prompting Russian intervention; hybrid sabotage operations that escalate through tit-for-tat responses.

Samuel’s case isn’t that peace is bad, but that the Ukraine conflict has remilitarised Europe, made Russia more resentful, and collapsed diplomatic relations between the two. That’s a postwar environment primed for the kind of miscalculation that starts unintended wars.

What he prescribes isn’t a full peace treaty; it’s a negotiated settlement that stops the killing and begins a longer negotiation that gives neither side exactly what it wants, but just enough to deter renewed aggression. Both sides stop dying and the flames of war fizzle — hopefully.

None of this is clean or satisfying: Russia invaded, committed war crimes, and is being offered a path back to partial normalcy. But Samuel argues that the alternatives — indefinite war or unstructured ceasefire — are much worse for Ukraine, Europe, and global stability.

Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/sc26

This episode was recorded on February 27, 2026.

Chapters:

Cold open (00:00:00)
Could peace in Ukraine lead to Europe’s next war? (00:00:47)
Do Russia’s motives for war still matter? (00:11:41)
What does a good ceasefire deal look like? (00:17:38)
What’s still holding back a ceasefire (00:38:44)
Why Russia might accept Ukraine’s EU membership (00:46:00)
How to prevent a spiraling conflict with NATO (00:48:00)
What’s next for nuclear arms control (00:49:57)
Finland and Sweden strengthened NATO — but also raised the stakes for conflict (00:53:25)
Putin isn’t Hitler: How to negotiate with autocrats (00:56:35)
Why Russia still takes NATO seriously (01:02:01)
Neither side wants to fight this war again (01:10:49)

Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
Music: CORBIT
Transcripts and web: Nick Stockton, Elizabeth Cox, and Katy Moore